Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
